Transport and logistics are ironically slow-changing industries. But in the coming years many expect that an influx of intelligent technologies such as the Internet of Things will create a hypermodal transport system that will transform the way people and goods are moved around.
With the right Internet of Things (IoT) solution in place, enterprises can connect all devices across a centralised cloud network, and capture and share their mission-critical data. This will allow them to gain realtime visibility of their operations, as well as make for a safer, more coordinated and ‘smarter’ use of transport networks.
But it is still early days. Mark Bünger, a director at Lux Research, says that the IoT is at the stage of a dial-up modem in the evolution of the internet. However, as it evolves, intermodal and intelligent technologies will create a hypermodal system that moves not just goods, but supply, demand and the means of production.
“We have around 50 times more light vehicle capacity than we need,” says Bünger. “Cars sit idle about 95% of the day. Even when they are driving they are mostly empty, with 76% of commutes being single occupant. And even when one leg of the trip is full capacity, such as when taking kids to school, the return, which can range from 30-50% of trips, is an empty ‘deadhead’.”
However, the IoT will be able to address this gross overcapacity in nearly every mode of transit, and the friction when a passenger or package needs to switch modes. “These problems have been ignored because they have been merely accepted as unavoidable costs of doing business,” says Bünger, “and because few companies have had a holistic view of transportation – but now that’s all changing rapidly.”
Already, companies such as Uber are trying to increase vehicle utilisation, eliminating these dead journeys and taking not only passengers but packages to maximise the utility of each leg. Bünger says: “Susan Shaheen at the University of California, Berkeley, has calculated that, for every vehicle that enters the ride-sharing fleet, 9-13 fewer privately owned cars are needed. If ride-sharing and, later, autonomous vehicles can optimise this situation even fractionally, it could reduce the need for vehicles by 20%, 50%, 75%, decimating the auto industry.”
There is a huge opportunity to reduce fleets and capture value, says Bünger. “Short-range drones could hitchhike on vehicles crossing a major city or state, and new modes like autonomous vehicles, hyperloops and blimps could be tied into a globally optimised network.”
Amazon is investing billions in ships, planes, and reportedly even airports – in addition to warehouse automation, smart packages and consumer interfaces. Bünger says: “This means they will soon have an end-to-end view of supply and demand, and be able to optimise both on an unprecedented scale.”
But Alan Howard, head of thought leadership at the Institution of Engineering and Technology, says that, in spite of substantial investment in smart cities by the government, local authorities and businesses, “most people don’t understand the concept or, more importantly, how smart city digital communications technology could improve their quality of life by enhancing infrastructure and public services, including transport and traffic management, energy, water and waste management, healthcare and other community services”.
Howard says it is important for public authorities, businesses and service providers to understand the innovations and issues that people want to see in smart cities and communities – and put greater emphasis on the human and societal outcomes of their initiatives. “Putting people first, rather than technology, is essential if we are to improve quality of life and create liveable, connected and sustainable cities and communities in which to live, work and invest. Without this, we risk developing technology-enabled cities and communities that people neither recognise nor value.”
Playing catch-up
But this slow revolution in the transport industry has been noted. Bünger says: “It is very late in the game to be starting to look at IoT in transportation. Uber, Google and Amazon began several years ago, and catching up to them will require one or more of the following: large investments in the multibillion-dollar scale; strategic and ambitious partnership strategies; and an unprecedentedly broad global view.”
The rail sector is a prime example of the slow pace of change in the transport industry. With the increasing numbers of passengers and a demand for faster, cleaner, safer and more reliable railways, the improvement and modernisation of the infrastructure is a critical part in delivering a better service for the future. There is an increasing amount of data available to consumers and service providers, and efficiently managing this data could help with increasing the capacity on the tracks.
Despite the benefits of an intelligent transport industry, there are still issues that come with increased connection to the internet, such as the cyber security implications. “The IoT has been called ‘preposterously insecure’ and transportation is very vulnerable,” says Bünger. “The complexity means it is harder to secure even in principle, and the sheer mass and velocity of the ‘things’ – packages, cars, ships – means that failures will be violent and fatal.”
These are hard problems to solve, but the biggest issue is industry’s reluctance to fix anything that’s not visibly broken and proactively address problems, says Bünger. “That culture and lack of leadership means that it will probably cope very poorly. If history is a guide, it will patch problems after they have already occurred, with financial, environmental and human losses.”
Threat of cyber crime
Ben Mitchell, principal cyber scientist at the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) recently spoke at a seminar on Intelligent Rail Infrastructure in London. According to Mitchell, modern interconnected transport systems have areas of potential vulnerabilities and there is a growing requirement for industries such as rail need to examine their own cyber security arrangements.
Mitchell explained that over the past two years the DSTL has worked with Network Rail and London Underground to assess cyber vulnerabilities. He said that, with the increasingly connected system in use in the industry, cyber crime is becoming a real threat. “It is vital that this is considered all the way through design, service life and disposal at the end of any connected technologies at use on transport systems like this, as even if they’re secure now they may be exploitable in the future,” he said.
To assess these potential vulnerabilities, DSTL has carried out network penetration tests to see whether the train control system, “including the braking, doors, ventilation, the works,” could be compromised. Mitchell said: “Although the tests proved there are security measures in place, and that systems are robust, what attackers could do tomorrow could be entirely different.”
He added: “During the creation of a security system, the chances are that the measures to secure it are already old, and if they’re old then they’re vulnerable. It is therefore necessary for rail industries as well as all other increasingly connected industries to design in cyber security right from the start and learn from other fields to make sure their system’s security is constantly updated.”
In the next decade, intermodal and intelligent technologies will create a system that transports people and packages much faster. The industry will do to taxis and public transport what containerisation did to ports and shipping. And cars will be considered a utility service that makes taking a trip as effortless as sending an email.
Most of the wasted time, material and energy of today’s transport system will be effectively eliminated, and our means of travel will seem as distant and quaintly primitive as typewritten letters and home-made socks.
But before this becomes a reality, all areas of the industry need to realise the benefits of increased connectivity, and embrace the improvements that the IoT could provide. This must be done without forgetting the importance of introducing these sophisticated and intelligent technologies in a secure, sensible way.
Changing direction
General Motors recently invested $500 million in ride-share company Lyft, more than $1 billion in automation company Cruise, and bought ride-sharing company Sidecar. And Apple has invested more than $1 billion on Didi Chuxing, Uber’s rival in China.
“But spending a lot does not mean spending smart,” says Mark Bünger, a director at Lux Research. “In a classic case of fighting the last battle, Audi, BMW and Daimler bought Nokia’s Here Maps in a $3.1 billion deal as an alternative to Apple’s CarPlay and Android Auto. But with devices like Automatic and Voyomotive, consumers don’t need any future technology from carmakers to see what’s going on in their cars; nor do Apple and Google, through whose devices that data flows. So some of these billion-dollar bets are panic.”
Bünger believes that anyone in the transport industry needs to radically rethink what business they are in – and probably get out of what exists today.
He says: “It’s hard to imagine a big manufacturer like GM or VW becoming a services business, but that’s exactly the scale of the challenge they face.”