Engineering news
The study of more than 500 companies, commissioned by think tank the Resolution Foundation, found that almost half of firms (47%) have totally unrealistic expectations of what the post-Brexit immigration regime might be. It revealed that 17% of firms expect no change to the current system of freedom of movement for EU nationals to the UK, while nearly a third (30%) expect to see that system maintained for those with job offers.
However, Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out both options, stating that her government – rather than firms’ demand for workers – will control migrant numbers.
The survey found that almost half (46%) of employers of EU nationals do not expect any change in the numbers in their workforce over the next 12 months. A quarter (24%) expect to increase the number of migrant workers they employ, roughly the same proportion as those expecting a decrease (26%).
This is despite there having already been a sharp fall in net migration – from a high of 335,000 on the eve of the referendum to 248,000 at the end of last year.
The research from the Resolution Foundation is backed up by results from the 2016 IET skills survey, which found that only 35% of engineering employers expected Brexit to have a negative impact on recruitment, while 36% were unsure of the impact and 23% predicted no impact. The IET revealed that, in terms of recruitment, training and wider organisational matters, the mood among most employers immediately after the referendum appeared to be “business as usual”.
“The apparent lack of preparation revealed in both surveys is likely to be a result of the overwhelming political uncertainty around Brexit and migration targets at the moment,” IET director of governance and policy Alison Carr told Professional Engineering. “But with a predicted 1.82 million shortfall in engineers over the next decade, it is clear that engineering employers rely more heavily on skills from the European Union and other migrant workers than many other industry sectors – so they will clearly need to look at mitigating the risk of reduced access to skills.”
Carr said that the engineering profession has made it clear to government that any Brexit negotiations must ensure continued access to skilled labour but, with a hard Brexit and more aggressive migration cuts now on the cards, the pressure on industry to take action is growing.
“This action will involve more investment in training the existing engineering and technology workforce, particularly in skills needed for increased automation and digitisation in manufacturing,” Carr added.
“It will also be crucial that employers do more to inspire the next generation of engineers – from taking action to attract more women into engineering, to working with the education sector to offer more young people work experience, internship and placement opportunities in industry.”
The researchers concluded that, while Britain’s post-Brexit migration policy should not be solely determined by what businesses want, it is vital that the government listens to industry and gives firms the clarity they need to start preparing for a new immigration regime.
Ensuring a smooth transition towards a lower-migration labour market post-Brexit should be a key objective of the new government, according to the researchers. A failure to do so could deal a major blow to productivity, and with it the prospects for future pay and jobs growth, the researchers added.
“There’s a stark gap between what businesses want and expect from our post-Brexit immigration system, and what the government has pledged to deliver,” said Resolution Foundation policy analyst Stephen Clarke. “Reconciling these differences, and giving businesses enough to plan for a new regime, is absolutely vital.
Clarke said this will be particularly important for companies in migrant-reliant sectors such as agriculture, food manufacturing, hospitality and construction. "In these sectors, business models may need to be rethought, new temporary worker systems navigated or, failing that, operations closed or moved abroad,” he added.