AI could replace 250,000 public sector workers, says report

Think tank Reform claims that using artificial intelligence could save central government £2.6 billion per year.

Automating more administrative roles in public services with artificial intelligence (AI) systems could remove almost 250,000 employees from payrolls, according to a report published by independent think tank Reform.

The report titled Work in progress: Towards a leaner, smarter public sector workforce takes into consideration a range of factors affecting the issue, but implies that the more advanced forms of digital technology could have a disruptive effect on the way the public sector is organised over the next few years.

It advocates the increased use of “diamond shaped” workforce, in which there are more staff in middle ranks while many of the tasks for lower ranking jobs are automated.

A growing number of government websites using chat bots, a form of AI that can simulate a human conversation, could remove the need for nearly 90% of central government’s administrators by 2030 and save it £2.6 billion per year, according to Reform. Similarly, the NHS could replace 90,000 administrators and 24,000 GP receptionists, claims Reform.

The core argument of the report is that leaders should look at the tasks that can be automated. It highlights possibilities including robotic process automation in legal services and the use of crowd monitoring drones by police forces.

The potential is being increased by the development of AI systems that can support tasks such as predictive analytics, such as analysing burglary data and responding to requests for information. The latter could work at a high level, such as in Japan where the ministry of economy, trade and industry is planning to use AI to help civil servants draft answers to questions submitted to ministers.

Alexander Hitchcock, co-author of the report, said: “Such a rapid advance in the use of technology may seem controversial, and any job losses must be handled sensitively.  But the result would be public services that are better, safer, smarter and more affordable.”

In looking at the structure of the public sector workforce, the report points to the Government Digital Service as an example of organising self-managing teams when it built the GOV.UK website, arguing that this approach could be used throughout the Civil Service. The self-management model could help departments respond quickly to changing demands or to be self-directed in executing policies.

Other elements in the report advocate a shift away from a ‘blame culture’ to a ‘learning culture’ in which organisations learn from mistakes, and the creation of special units within departments that have greater freedom over pay, terms and conditions to recruit people with specific skills.

The report can be accessed here.