Engineering news
According to campaign group End Coal, the fossil fuel is responsible for over 800,000 premature deaths every year and affects millions more with illness. Coal is estimated to be responsible for 46 % of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide and accounts for 72 % of greenhouse gas emissions from electricity production. China, for instance, is currently investing around US$15 billion to build, over the next 15 years, about a dozen coal power plants in Pakistan - a move that has been criticised by environmentalists.
Despite the dangers, a new study has found planned coal-fired plants in India could “single-handedly jeopardise the internationally agreed-upon climate target of avoiding 1.5C˚ of mean global warming.” The target, set at the 2016 Paris Agreement, is threatened by plans for 370 new coal power stations, says the study from the University of California.
However, construction has stalled at dozens of sites in India and some environmentalists are quietly discussing the future of the energy industry in the world’s biggest democracy with cautious optimism. So, what is the real story?
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“If these planned coal-fired power stations go ahead in India they would undermine global climate change objectives,” said Ben Caldecott, energy and environmental expert at Oxford University, to Professional Engineering. “They are completely incompatible with the Paris climate change agreement - even coal with carbon capture and storage isn’t compatible with net zero carbon emissions, which is where we need to get to in order to stabilise the climate.”
According to climate scientist Steve Davis, co-author of the new study in Earth’s Future, India would increase the share of fossil fuels in its energy budget by 123 % if all planned coal stations went ahead. “We found they are already incompatible with the country’s international climate commitments and are simply unneeded. These plants therefore risk either locking out the country’s renewable electricity goals or becoming stranded assets, operating well below optimal rates and leading to financial losses.”
However, Greenpeace India representative Asish Fernandes said the study is “already a bit outdated” despite being published in April. “India's energy landscape is changing fast and the number of coal plants proposed has fallen significantly,” he said.
According to Boom and Bust, a report published in March by Greenpeace, research network Coalswarm and environmental group The Sierra Club, construction projects are on hold at 31 new coal plants, representing 12,725MW of capacity. The report says banks and other financiers are reluctant to provide funds as the government indicates a possible shift away from coal. In June 2016, the Ministry of Power said the country has enough coal-fired plants to meet demand to 2020.
Several factors combined for the “dramatic” drop in coal progress in India. Globally, the cost of coal alternatives – renewable sources in particular – are falling rapidly. “The financial situation has moved decisively against coal in India in the last two years - the latest tariffs for solar and wind power now put them below the cost of new coal power,” said Fernandes.
Climate change issues are also an immediate reality for coal stations in India, which rely on huge volumes of water to create the steam that drives their turbines. Water shortages due to drought have already brought production to a halt at some plants.
Ted Nace, director of Coalswarm, said frozen construction at a number of sites is welcome. “It’s not normal to see construction frozen at scores of locations, but central authorities in China and bankers in India have come to recognise overbuilding of coal plants as a major waste of resources. However abrupt, the shift from fossil fuels to clean sources in the power sector is a positive one for health, climate security, and jobs. And by all indications, the shift is unstoppable.”
According to Greenpeace, renewable power accounted for over 25 % of Indian electricity generation in the last year, and more renewables were added to the grid than coal. With environmentalists such as Fernandes saying there is “definitely” room for cautious optimism, energy expert Caldecott agreed that the tides of change are travelling in one direction.
“The economics of coal investments is only going one way: down. The attractiveness of renewables is only going one way: up. The ability to… unlock even more potential from renewables through battery storage and other things is also going up. Whether all that is enough to successfully tackle climate change, we can’t be sure.”
But the point is, he said, “proceeding along that path will save Indian rate payers and the Indian government a lot of money. It will also result in less environmental harm and less harm to citizens.”