Comment & Analysis
This approach, like all other scenario work is not a forecast; they are predictions about how the future might unfold and how an issue might affect the industry. This year, BP have stated that the headline results are based primarily on their Evolving Transition Scenario, which assumes that up to the year 2040, government policies, technologies and societal preferences will evolve in a manner and speed similar to the recent past.
The table below provides a comparison of the headline summary outputs of 2018 and 2017.
| BP Energy Outlook 2018 |
BP Energy Outlook 2017 |
| Fast growth in developing economies drives up global energy demand a third higher.
|
Global energy demand to increase by around 30% to 2035, driven by increasing prosperity in developing countries, partially offset by rapid gains in energy efficiency. |
| The global energy mix is the most diverse the world has ever seen by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around a quarter |
Technological improvements and environmental concerns are changing the mix of primary energy demand but oil and gas, together with coal, remain the main source of energy to 2035. |
| Renewables are by far the fastest-growing fuel source, increasing five-fold and providing around 14% of primary energy. |
Renewables remain by far the fastest-growing energy source, quadrupling over the next 20 years. |
| Demand for oil grows over much of Outlook period before plateauing in the later years. |
Oil demand grows but at a slowing pace; and non-combusted uses replace transport as the main source of demand growth by 2030s. |
|
Natural gas demand grows strongly and overtakes coal as the second largest source of energy.
|
Gas grows faster than either oil or coal; the rapid expansion of LNG is likely to lead to a globally integrated gas market, anchored by US gas prices. |
| Oil and gas together account for over half of the world’s energy. |
The power sector accounts for nearly two-thirds of the increase in primary energy. |
| Global coal consumption flatlines and it seems increasingly likely that Chinese coal consumption has plateaued. |
Global coal consumption peaks. |
| The number of electric cars grows to around 15% of the car park, but because of the much higher intensity with which they are used, account for 30% of passenger vehicle kilometers. Carbon emissions continue to rise, signalling the need for a comprehensive set of actions to achieve a decisive break from the past. |
Carbon emissions grow at less than a third of the rate of the past 20 years, reflecting both gains in energy efficiency and the changing fuel mix, but in the base case are still projected to increase, highlighting the need for further action.
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| Source: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/media/press-releases/energy-outlook-2018.html |
Source: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/media/press-releases/bp-energy-outlook-an-energy-transition-is-underway.html |
Generally speaking, from 2017 to 2018 the differences are not significant, but there are some incremental changes that were expected, due to technological advances and cost reductions of some energy technologies. We see the uptake of renewables increase at a faster rate than previously envisioned, gas is identified as the key fossil fuel of the future overtaking both oil and coal, and we see emissions globally predicted to increase. One area that doesn't get much of a mention in the headlines in the role of nuclear in the future energy mix.
Globally, an increase in renewables will need to be connected to innovations in storage technologies, which in turn, will need to be appropriate to a country’s infrastructure, geography and climate. With power expected to account for 70% of the increase in primary energy demand, this will become increasingly urgent. However, even with this shift towards renewables, coal is expected to remain the main fuel for power generation, a fuel with large CO2 emissions, high in particulates, increasing pollution and known for its negative health impacts.
Combining the above with the expectation that gas will grow faster in use than coal, we can see why carbon emissions are expected to rise. Gas is often described in debates about energy as a low carbon fuel. It is not a low carbon fuel; it has carbon emissions of around half that of coal and around a third less than oil[i]. In order to begin to address the needs of the Paris Agreement globally we will have to become more serious about real decarbonisation. The reality of this is that no fossil fuels can provide the majority of the global energy system. BP is correct in their assertion that we need to break from our past in order to meet the Paris Agreement, but it seems that is unlikely in 20-30 years, beyond which may be too late.
From an engineering perspective, fossil fuels work because they have comparatively high energy densities (the amount of energy stored foiln a mass or system). The greater the energy density the more energy is available from the fuel or system. The table below gives some examples of different energy densities for different energy sources.
Renewables are measured slightly differently and one fun fact is that that energy density of wind is between 0.5-50J/m3 and a human has a greater energy density of 1000J/m3.[ii]
From this information it is clear that the nuclear power provides an excellent source of low carbon power and wind and batteries, although renewable combined with no tailpipe emissions, does not produce anywhere near the power of nuclear. Gas and oil fall in between and as fossil fuels have negative environmental impacts. Another alternative fuel not discussed in the headline data from BP is hydrogen, which only really becomes a viable decarbonisation option if produced through electrolysis with a low carbon power source. Hydrogen can provide fuel for all parts of the energy system, for power, for transport, for heating and for industry.
| Fuel or System |
Energy Density MJ/L |
| Nuclear – uranium |
1,539,842,000 |
| Oil/ diesel |
36 |
| Glucose |
23 |
| Gas CH4 |
22 |
| Hydrogen |
9.2 |
| Batteries Lithium-ion |
0.9-2.6 |
To make the break from the past suggested by BP and others, we really need to consider how we produce as much low carbon and renewable energy as possible in order to make up the 70% increase in primary energy demand suggested in this year’s Energy Outlook. Taking the approach of considering the best available technologies, greater investment in technologies, for energy efficiency, nuclear fission and fusion, electrolysis, hydrogen, renewables and storage will begin the process of really removing fossil fuels from the mix.
BP also sees an increase in electric vehicles. Some will benefit from the new power systems that will come online across the world, but if coal continues to be/is the primary power resource, then we will see hardly any impact on the reduction of vehicle emissions and the associated negative health implications; they will have simply been moved around the system. If we want to create a more electric world then we have to deliver better solutions for global power production.
[i] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=73&t=11
[ii]
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15435070802498036?journalCode=ljge20