'Cautious' manufacturers might take two decades to build another A380-scale jet

Manufacturers could take two decades to build new passenger aircraft on the scale of the ‘before its time’ Airbus A380 superjumbo, an expert has said.

The last A380, the largest passenger aircraft in the world with a potential maximum capacity of 853 people, will leave the production line in 2021 after principal operator Emirates reduced its order by 39 aircraft. With no substantial backlog to meet, European aerospace giant Airbus will end production of the four-engine airliner.

After 14 years of service, the A380 is well liked by passengers for its quiet and comfortable flights. But, like the Concorde, it is a modern aerospace icon that might not be joined by an equal for some time.

It will continue operating for many years but might not see competitors of a similar size for decades thanks to improving technology in twin-engine aircraft and economic issues, said Tim Robinson, editor of Aerospace magazine.

“One of the arguments that Airbus always had was it was ‘before its time’,” Robinson told Professional Engineering. The A380, he said, was aimed at demand from rampant growth of ‘mega-hubs’, modern cities such as Dubai that would eventually see slots at airports fill up thanks to increased traffic.

“That is why, in Dubai, Emirates loved the A380 so much because they could put as many people through the hubs as possible in big aeroplanes.

“Conversely, the markets spoke and also the engine technology improved with the twins, and they showed people want to fly direct and they want frequent services – two aeroplanes going two times a day to where you want to go, rather than a big aeroplane, changing at a hub.”

‘The technology will come around’

Despite increased competition from smaller twin-engine aircraft such as the Boeing 777, Airbus’s own A350 – which Emirates purchased 30 of today, along with 40 A330s – or longer-range new planes, Robinson said superjumbo-size passenger aircraft could be built again, “maybe not in 10 years, but maybe 20 or something like that”.

One enabler might be blended-wing body designs, which have no clear divide between the wings and main fuselage. Having a smooth, seamless connection between body and wings could make much more efficient aircraft, thanks to lift from the entire structure.

Blended-wing bodies might first be used for military ‘tankers’ carrying 700-1,000 people, Robinson said. Commercial aircraft manufacturers might then adapt the style for passenger flights.

With air travel set to increase rapidly over the coming decades, larger airliners might seem an attractive prospect once again.

“It is either that, or build new airports,” said Robinson. “I think people will be very cautious about revisiting [superjumbo-scale airliners], but at some point the technology will come around again with blended-wing bodies… who will take the risk and go down that path?”

Thousands of jobs affected

“Airbus’s decision to end the production of its A380 model marks the end of an era but comes as little surprise,” said Paul Adams, aerospace specialist at management consultancy Vendigital. “The A380 is an iconic aircraft and close to the hearts of many in the industry for its size, scale and engineering. However, in practice, flying such a large aircraft with four engines was no longer economically viable, requiring airlines to ensure it was consistently full of passengers, which was often unrealistic. While the Emirates order in 2017 kept things going, its production has therefore been scaled back over a number of years and a shutdown has seemed inevitable for some time.”

Airbus originally had a programme of 1,500 A380s, Adams claimed, but fewer than 250 have been built so far. Ending production in 2021 will therefore “come as a major disappointment to many suppliers who have invested in fixtures, tooling and plants,” he said.

Between 3,000 and 3,500 jobs might be affected by the decision over the next three years, Airbus said. ITV reported that 200 of those are in Britain.

The manufacturer said increasing production of the A320 and the new wide-body order from Emirates will offer “a significant number of internal mobility opportunities,” however.