With only four decades to go, the UK is already losing the climate change mitigation battle. The greenhouse gas emission targets set by the Government require a rate of reduction that has never been achieved by even the most progressive nations in the world. The Institution’s latest report, Climate Change: have we lost the battle? argues that if the UK is realistically going to reach an outcome equivalent to a reduction of 80% by 2050, we need to start mapping out an alternative solution using all engineering methods possible and not only relying on mitigation.
COP15 or Cop-out?
In December 2009 world nations meet in Copenhagen, Denmark, to try to agree a replacement to the Kyoto Protocol. The current outlook for a forward thinking, legally binding global agreement is not looking good, with domestic economic, social and political concerns diverting attention from the required world view.
The UK Government has attempted to address the challenges of climate change by passing the Climate Change Act (2008); introducing targets and carbon reduction budgets to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the short term to 34% by 2020, and longer term to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.
The Institution of Mechanical Engineers applauds these first steps but they will not come near to achieving the 80% reduction target by 2050. Therefore, the question has to be, are the policies being adopted simply a cop-out so that the UK does not have to take decisive and serious actions, many of which may be unpalatable to politicians and the general public? If this is correct, have we therefore already lost the climate change mitigation battle?
The call to action
To decarbonise the nation and achieve the 80% reduction in GHG output by 2050, the UK will need to undertake a monumental task at a scale it has never seen before, reducing carbon output per unit of GDP by over 5% annually until 2050. Between 2001 and 2006, we achieved an average of 1.3% annual reduction, but in more recent years, progress has been far more limited. Globally, while the UK, is one of the better performing nations. France has the most decarbonised economy among the large developed nations – through its move towards nuclear power as the predominant source of electricity generation.
For the UK to be on track to achieve the emission reductions required by the Climate Change Act, it would have to become as carbon efficient as France by about 2015; which magnitudinous challenge would require the equivalent of the UK constructing and putting into service about 30 new nuclear power stations in the next five years, while retiring an equal amount of coal-fired generation!
Winning the climate change war
With the climate change policy direction of the current Government being primarily focused on mitigation, the UK is unlikely to achieve the 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 unless unprecedented levels of public investment are directed towards this task. The Institution believes that a realistic date to achieve the 2050 targets, based on current policy, is 2100 at the earliest. Although by this time, climatic changes in the world will unfortunately create serious social, economic, and environmental tensions however, the Institution firmly believes that it is not too late to reassess our future course and implement a climate change battle plan which can help protect our society, offset CO2 emissions giving additional time for mitigation policies to take hold. This we call the MAG approach.
MAG approach to climate change
MAG is the integration of Mitigation, Adaptation and Geo-engineering into one unified and coherent policy which addresses both national and international concerns:
Mitigation is the on-going reduction of GHG emissions from all sectors of society, such as energy production, transportation, the built environment and so on. It will remain the centrepiece of any climate change policy.
Adaptation is ensuring we adapt and protect our critical assets such as power stations, transport links and population centres from flooding, overheating and sea level rises. In some extreme cases, this would mean planned abandonment of settlements and existing infrastructure.
Geo-engineering is using technology to try to slow the global temperature rise by either removing carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from the atmosphere or reflecting solar radiation back into space.
This MAG approach to climate change would allow the UK to achieve an outcome equivalent to meeting the 80% target (very possibly by the 2050 target date); while simultaneously transitioning to a low-carbon economy at a realistically achievable rate, and adapting to climate change impacts which are already inevitable as a result of damage done to the atmosphere to date. The geo-engineering technologies would be gradually reduced over time as mitigation policy takes effect. Alternatively, the CO2 removal technologies could be maintained for a longer than needed period to reduce historic CO2 already in the atmosphere.
Leading the charge
The Institution believes that the MAG approach would be better managed by remodelling the Department of Energy and Climate Change into the new Department of Energy and Climate Security (DECS), giving it significant powers to implement what is necessary and needed in the war against climate change, with the additional responsibility of ensuring energy security – both in international supplies and intermittency of supply (especially from renewable energy generation). The MAG approach will only be effective if DECS merges all actions into one definitive national battle plan that spans at least 100 years.
The Institution’s unified MAG strategy allows realistic mitigation targets to be set, planned adaptation policies to be put into place (thus helping industry estimate pre-planned future activity) and geo-engineering research, development, deployment and eventually decommissioning to be mapped out. DECS’s biggest challenge will be in organising and directing the nation’s resources and skills in the war on climate change (Mitigation or ‘rationing’ of resources and emissions, Adaptation or ‘defence’ of our assets, and Geo-engineering or ‘attacking’ CO2 concentrations): a task which will even eclipse the UK’s efforts and resources deployed during the cold war.
Key recommendations
The Institution of Mechanical Engineers urges Government and other stakeholders to consider the following three recommendations to ensure the UK is best prepared for the future global climate change challenges:
1. Adopt a MAG approach to climate change policy to help reach our targets
The UK will fail to achieve the outcome desired by the 2050 80% GHG reduction target without the adoption of a unified MAG policy. This single integrated policy approach would continue mitigation policy , plus develop effective temporary geo-engineering solutions and an adaptation strategy to protect critical assets from inevitable climate change impacts. This approach would be a world first and offer a possible global route-map for many other nations. The full adoption of a MAG policy could also increase the UK green sector to over 2 jobs million by 2050, guaranteeing many organisations decades of work reducing emissions and protecting our nation.
2. Introduce centralised control for climate change policy
All parts of Government responsible for mitigation, adaptation and geo-engineering activity should be moved into a remodelled Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). This new ‘security’ department (Department of Energy and Climate Security – DECS) would have sole responsibility, and the necessary powers, to direct national funding, planning, development, commissioning and implementation of the MAG strategy, having priority above nearly all other departments.
3. Develop a comprehensive MAG battle plan to secure our future and help industry plan future skill requirements
The Government should work with the engineering profession and business community to develop a comprehensive plan for the implementation of geo-engineering and adaptation alongside the transition to a low-carbon economy. This plan should be scaled over at least 100 years or until the geo-engineering element is eliminated.
This video, produced by the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, shows an image of London from 2020 to 2110 in which by 2050:
Widespread adoption of renewable energy sources will have happened with wind, solar and wave technologies all being used to power our buildings
River and sea defences will have been improved to protect against rising sea levels
Artificial trees (which look like large fly-swatters beside the wind turbines) will be used to absorb carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere (like a tree but 10,000 times more efficiently) and bury the gas in depleted oil wells in the North Sea.
Although the Government believes that we will reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050, the Institution of Mechanical Engineers believes a more realistic date is 2100, some 50 years later than Government estimates. Only a fresh approach to climate change can hope to make the 2050 target achievable.