Introduction
The Institution of Mechanical Engineers is privileged to be the UK representative in Future Climate: an international project for participating engineering associations, aimed at reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to a sustainable level. The goal of the project is for each association, including the Institution, to develop a technology-based climate plan, and/or specific technology solutions for its home country for the period up to the year 2050.
The data from the climate plans, technological solutions and scenarios will be used in a joint project report that will be presented to participants in the historic UN Climate Summit, COP 15, in Copenhagen in December this year. They will also provide fact-based evidence for national public debates on energy and climate in the run up to Copenhagen, and beyond.
Future Climate – The project
There is an overwhelming need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a sustainable level. Overcoming global warming and climate change is a huge challenge and might well be the number one challenge for engineers and society this century. Technology-based climate plans and descriptions of technology solutions that outline a sustainable climate future form the core of the Future Climate project.
The common goal of the associations is to contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions to a sustainable level – defined by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) as a scenario whereby the increase in global temperature does not exceed 2º C relative to pre-industrial levels. Each association will develop for their home country, climate plans and technology solutions which will contribute to this goal, setting ambitious yet realistic reduction targets. The Future Climate project advisory board will then consider whether the plans as a whole are consistent with the two degree target and feed in contributions to COP15 in Copenhagen.
Consequences of a two degree target
Global GHG reductions of 50-85 % in 2050
The IPCC estimates that, if the concentration of CO2 equivalents in the atmosphere is kept within the range of 445-490 ppm, the average global temperature will increase by between 2.0 and 2.4° C compared to pre-industrial levels. As the total GHG concentration already reached 445 ppm of CO2 equivalents in 2005, the IPCC estimates that the emission of GHG must not peak later than 2015 and that the emissions of GHGs should be reduced by 50-85% in 2050 compared to 2000.
Sooner or later, all countries will be required to find ways of reducing the emission of GHGs. However, the exact target for each country is the subject of negotiations at COP15 and there will be differences depending on the stage of economic development amongst other factors.
A per capita perspective on reduction target
If the two degree target is to be met, developed countries must immediately start reducing their emissions of GHGs, and subsequently reduce GHG emissions by more than 50-85 % by 2050. In the case of developing and emerging economies, stabilisation of GHG emissions, followed by a reduction, may be postponed for some years. However, reductions will be necessary in all regions of the world, and only in a few countries is the current GHG emission per capita less than what will be necessary if the temperature increase is not to exceed two degrees.
In 2000, the total emission of CO2 equivalents was approximately 45 GT/year (IPCC, Working Group 3), corresponding to 7.4 tons of CO2 equivalents per capita. As the UN forecasts that the population will be 8.91 billion by 2050, the emission of CO2 equivalents should be reduced to between 0.8 and 2.5 tons per capita per year.
Planning for the Future
The climate plans and the scenarios will provide an opportunity for the Institution and other participating associations to demonstrate the proficiency of their engineers and members before national and international audiences. The participating associations can choose to develop comprehensive climate plans which include descriptions of promising technologies, or choose instead to focus on describing promising key technology solutions.
The climate plans will include:
- Qualitative and quantitative descriptions and analyses of the national energy system and the sources of the GHG emissions
- A sustainable climate scenario going to 2050 based on the technologies and solutions proposed for implementation, plus their economic viability
- A description of the measures required to support the development and implementation of these plans and technologies
The reports on promising technology solutions will include:
- Qualitative and quantitative description of the selected technology solutions and their sector of focus
- A description of the measures required to support the development and diffusion of the selected technology.
First draft of UK national energy plan submitted to Future Climate
The Institution has submitted to ‘Future Climate’ the first draft of its UK national energy plan aimed at helping to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to a sustainable level and avoiding dangerous climate change. Future Climate is the project for international engineering associations which will be presenting technology-based solution strategies to the United Nations’ Climate Change Conference, COP15, in Copenhagen this December.
Flow chart and time schedule
1. First project meeting, Copenhagen, 18 and 19 September 2008
2. Start of work on development of climate plans
3. Mid-term report, 2 February 2009. First data on climate plans, technology solutions and a brief summary of the main aspects and intentions of climate plans must be submitted to the advisory board.
4. Feedback and comments by the Advisory Board on the midterm report, 15 February 2009
5. Continued work on climate plans within the associations
6. Delivery of draft climate plans and summary, including a final data sheet, 15 June 2009
7. Comments on the national climate plans by the Advisory Board, 15 July 2009
8. Submission of final national report, 15 August 2009
9. Presentation of climate plans on 3 and 4 September 2009, Copenhagen
Future_Climate_Brief.PDF
Future Climate Photo Competition
The Future Climate photo competition is a fantastic opportunity for members of the Institution to get involved with the project which is feeding into the United Nations' climate conference this December. The competition is all about capturing the existing engineering solutions, technologies and best practices for approaching global warming. The Future Climate photo competition is all about showing what can be achieved.
To take part, log into Flickr, download your picture with a Creative Commons licence join the group Future Climate and make your Engineering Solutions pictures available for the competition.
A jury consisting of photographers and engineers will pick out 50 pictures which will be exhibited at the Future Climate Engineering Solutions conference in Copenhagen from 3-4 September 2009. The prize is an all expenses paid visit to attend the conference for one winner and their guest.
The competition deadline is 1 August 2009.
Take part in the Future Climate Photograph Competition
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