Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that there has been a stalling of emissions from fossil fuels over the last three years – attributed to an increased use of clean energy and a global decline in the use of coal and weaker economies, which has led to lower energy demand.
However, the researchers involved in the study say that while the decline in carbon emissions is promising it will not be enough to ensure that global warming targets are met. They found that most climate models require carbon capture and storage to meet the Paris goal.
Robbie Andrew, senior researcher in the Climate Economics Unit at the Centre for international Climate Research in Norway, and contributor to the study, says that countries are “a long way behind the schedule suggested by those models”.
Andrew stresses that researchers designing and running the models are simply projecting “potential pathways” but that CCS seems to be a considerable lower overall investment, allowing countries to continue to burn coal and gas and capture and store the resulting emissions, rather than the “presumed enormous upheaval that would result from an entirely different energy system”.
Asbjørn Torvanger, an economist studying climate economics and policy who contributed to the research, says that current CCS deployment is “lagging far behind” a level required to have a significant important for meeting the 2C target. “More delays will reduce the scope for fossil CCS,” he adds. “The time window for industrial CCS and biomass-CCS is longer.”
Torvanger explains the reasons for the delay are due to weak climate policy, cheap carbon prices compared to the relatively expensive upfront costs of CCS, renewable energy becoming more price competitive and scepticism around the technology.
Andrew adds that the technology and skill to deploy CCS is there but it must be done in tandem with investment in renewable energy and efficiency improvements. “We need to fire with all cylinders, not rely on the silver bullet that somehow will save us when someone finally discovers it,” he says.
“Governments cannot sit back and wait for market signals to do their thing and drive private investment. In this situation, market signals are coming far too late. These are big costs, with big risks, and a lot at stake. The role of governments is clear.”
Carbon capture in the UK
Luke Warren, chief executive of the Carbon Capture & Storage Association (CCSA) in the UK says the findings that there has been a global slowdown in emissions growth should not lead to complacency.
The UK government is developing its Clean Growth Plan which must show how it will decarbonise in the period of 2030 and beyond. Warren says that CCS will be a “critical part of that story” and CCSA will work with the government to develop a future credible plan for CCS.
The UK government cancelled a £1 billion CCS competition in November 2015, which has slowed down the country’s exploration of the technology and investment in essential infrastructure needed to effectively deploy CCS.
However, a spokesperson for BEIS told
PE that the costs of CCS “must come down” if it is to play a role in reducing the UK’s carbon emissions. They stressed that the UK is the third best country in the world for tackling climate change, adding that the government is “considering options for CCS in the UK” and will set out its approach “in due course”.
Other schemes in the UK, such as the Teeside Collective, are attempting to create a viable financial CCS model for industry, by creating a cluster of energy-intensive industries working to establish one of Europe's first clean industrial zones.
Sarah Tennison, Technology and Innovation Manager at Tees Valley Combined Authority, which is managing Teesside Collective’s industrial CCS project, says that the Teesside Collective is a “ready-made, cost-effective” opportunity for Britain to start removing carbon dioxide from its vital process and chemical industries.
Tennison believes that CCS is the “only viable technology able to reduce industrial CO₂ emissions”, which accounts for 20% of global emissions. “If we can get it under way now, it will vastly increase the chances of the UK meeting its 2050 emission reduction goals,” she adds.
The Paris agreement, ratified in November 2016, means that governments including the US, China, India and the EU, now carry an obligation to hold global warming to no more than 2C above pre-industrial levels. Scientists believe going above this threshold would cause dangerous and irreversible climate change.