To those used to the almost permanent dismal grey vistas of Northern Europe, the clear blue skies and abundant sunlight of the Middle East and North Africa suggest an immediate propensity to renewable energy.
Yet the 21 countries of this region, from Morocco in the West to Iran in the East, lag behind in the global race to decarbonise energy production. For most, a more readily accessible and plentiful supply of oil and gas under their feet has negated the need for investment in renewable energy.
But even oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are now picking up the renewable energy baton and running with it – at full pelt. According to the latest report from the International Renewable Energy Association (Irena), renewable energy investment in the Middle East and North Africa topped $3 billion last year. This represented an increase of almost 40% over 2011 and a 6.5-fold increase from 2004.
Counter-intuitively for an arid region, the largest source of renewable energy installed there is hydropower - a total of 17.6GW of capacity. Iran has by far the lion’s share of hydropower capacity, with around 9.5GW. Other large users of hydroelectricity are Egypt and Iraq.
But according to Irena’s research, the slant towards hydro is about to change. There are 106 non-hydro renewable energy projects in planning and being built throughout the region. These projects total over 7.5GW of capacity, a 4.5 fold increase over current renewable capacity in the region. The bulk of these projects are wind and solar. The Jordanian government has created a specific legal framework for the creation of renewable energy, which is now coming to fruition in the form of 600MW of Solar PV. There is also movement in North Africa, where a CSP project and a solar tower projects in Morroco were recently announced.
Adnan Amin, director general of Irena, says: “This region’s commitment to renewable energy is inspiring. Since 2008, modern renewable energy production has grown at a much faster rate than fossil fuels and the trend is likely to continue.
“Governments across the region are driving the growth of renewable energy by implementing ambitious targets, enabling strong regulatory and institutional frameworks and showing recognition of the macro-economic benefits.”
The move towards renewables isn't entirely altruistic. For the 13 countries that are net exporters of oil, the economic reality is that every barrel of oil that is sold domestically could be sold far more lucratively on the international market, explains Marc Chapman, from the Emirates Solar Industry Association. “Developing jobs and helping the environment are important, but it’s also about finances. Saudi Arabia is entirely dependent on oil revenues,” he says.
A report published by the bank Citigroup last year found that Saudi Arabia, the Middle East’s top oil exporter, will run out of crude oil for export by 2030. Reserves are depleting rapidly thanks to growing demands and higher prices. Power demand in Saudi Arabia itself is expected to grow between 7-8% in the next ten years.
Since the Citigroup report’s publication, Saudi Arabia’s government has attempted to position itself as a “solar super power”. A white paper launched in March kickstarted international interest in the country's plans for renewable energy. The country hardly has any solar capacity at the moment, but plans to have installed some 41GW of solar capacity by 2030. In three years it wants to have laid the foundations for a world-leading solar industry.
In addition to the white paper, earlier this year Saudi Arabia commissioned its first concentrated solar plant (CSP), the 100MW Shams One, which uses a parabolic trough. “Shams One is the first of its kind and is being looked at as a template for what comes next,” says Chapman. “If you look at the global trend for CSP, it has been falling out of favour. But in Saudi Arabia they are looking at combining it with storage, so it will have a larger and larger role. Of the 41GW planned by the government, they intend 25GW of that to be CSP.”
Solar is seen as the real opportunity in the region by most in government, adds Chapman. “What's clear from the white paper is that the Saudi government wants private investment, technology from private companies, the know-how. But they also want international companies to tie-up with local companies, through requirements for local content in contracts and training schemes.
“They want to develop skills and knowledge for Saudi's to help tackle youth unemployment – it is a young country and unemployment is a big issue.”
One of the many solar suppliers looking to take a big piece of the Middle Eastern solar energy pie is REC. Originally a Norwegian company, it has grown to become one of the largest solar suppliers in Europe, and recently opened an office in Dubai.
Luc Graré, REC’s senior vice president of solar sales and marketing, says that although the Middle East’s solar market is small at the moment, the company is positioning itself to be ready when the growth kicks in.
“We see the market in the region picking up over the next two years and it being a 1GW plus market after 2015,” says Graré. “But it’s not easy to start PV in the area. There are two main engineering challenges – how to handle the extremes of temperature and how to cope with the dust and sand.”
The company has been running a test installation in Dubai for its range of solar modules. After just four days, says Graré, the modules were full of sand and had lost 30% of their output. Solar installations in the region currently solve the problem by hosing them down from trucks. Large solar plants in deserts become uneconomic fast when you have to wash sand off the panels every day. Water is scarce and labour costs will erode your profits.
Furthermore REC, like most suppliers, guarantees their operational lifespan of their panels. In REC’s case the guarantee is for 20 years. Graré says that length of guarantee is problematic in desert conditions, with for example, glue melting and degradation to components because of the extreme environment.
"There is no supplier with enough confidence to say they are they have the exact right solution for the market right now,” he says. “We are testing mechanical cleaning, different cleaning solutions, and different materials like hydrophobic glass.”
Cemil Seber, REC’s director of product marketing and global expansion says that the engineering challenges are shared by all firms developing solar for the Middle Eastern market, but is excited by the potential rewards for renewable energy there. He says: “We can take advantage of the high irradiation energy of the abundant light if you can harness the light that is reflected from the ground. Bifacial panels are the key to that.”
Bifacial panels have the same PV screen printed on both sides of the panel, effectively making them double sided. Their use in the Middle East doesn’t directly solve the problem of outputs decreasing because of accumulating dust and sand, but it does give you more bang for your dirham because irradiance reflected from the sand is transformed into electricity instead of heat, increasing your total output.
However, Seber admits that bifacial panels are a relatively recent innovation in the solar field and that there is a lack of knowledge about their performance. The material the background is made of and its respective reflective attributes can vary, affecting output. “There is no agreed definition by which to measure the performance of bifacial PV modules. Estimates of the performance increase vary between five and 15%,” he says.
Despite this, Seber believes it is unfair to identify only engineering challenges as a barrier to the uptake of solar in the Middle East. “Saudi Arabia uses 1.5 million barrels of oil to run desalination plants. Solar PV won’t be a solution to that problem. It’s about changing people’s mentality, creating incentives to go after the changes are required. The market has to be set up in the correct way to make solar PV a reality.”
Progress is being made with solar in the Middle East, but the finish line, which is in the same place as the oil running out, is far off, with several hurdles in the way. Most in the solar sector there are waiting on the Saudi government to publish its draft RFP and RFA for the first project and with ambitious targets, a false start cannot be afforded.