September 2014 letters

Scotland’s referendum, skills gaps and other topics

Following the article on geo-engineering, I would say that removing CO₂ from the atmosphere is probably the most fitting response to global warming (“Stop the melt,” PE July). If we could remove CO₂ at the rate at which our energy sources are emitting it we would have solved the problem. 

This approach is open to the same objection levelled at geo-engineering – that it takes the pressure off reducing emissions. The article describes the work of engineers active in the battle against climate change. 

Professor Klaus Lackner and the IMechE advocate forests of artificial trees to capture CO₂. Peter Eisenberger is running a pilot plant in California that removes CO₂ from air using waste heat. John Munford is focusing on capturing CO₂ from the sea. 

My main reservation with regard to these schemes is the scale of the problem compared with the capacity of the CO₂ capture machines.

We are putting 36Gt of CO₂ per year into the atmosphere and, although the rate of increase has slowed from a mean of 3.1% per year since 2000, it is still 2.1% per year. One Lackner/IMechE-style tree can remove about 1,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year. Thus merely to halt the increase in CO₂ emissions we would need
7.5 X 10⁵ trees. This still leaves emissions of 36Gt of CO₂ entering the atmosphere each year. Thus global warming would continue at about the current rate. 

The UK Committee on Climate Change showed in 2008 that to limit global warming to 2ºC (about 4ºC in the northern hemisphere) it would be necessary to reduce emissions by 3% per year from 2016. This would require 1.8 X 10⁶ trees, to be operational in the next few years. There are no signs that the world is able to do this. 

It is unreasonable to expect one technology to come to our rescue. Phasing out the use of fossil fuels has to be the long-term solution. From our experience so far and projections of fuel use this is not likely to happen, if at all, for two or three decades. Thus something other than decarbonising energy supply will be needed in the short term. Air capture could be part of that. Because of its cost and small effect relative to the problem, other measures will be required.

There is a solution that is powerful enough to give a chance of holding global warming to 2ºC. It is however not being considered because some scientists believe it will be harmful, in particular reducing monsoon rainfall, leading to a threat of starvation. It is the geo-engineering scheme of sulphate loading of the stratosphere. Dr Tim Fox says of this solution: “It effectively masks the effects of CO₂ in the atmosphere. It doesn’t deal with the cause, which is concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere.” This is true, and sulphate loading would get no consideration if there were any measures that could reduce CO₂ emissions or extract CO₂ from the atmosphere in sufficient quantity to avoid global warming. 

The harmful effects referred to derive from computer modelling of a massive quantity of sulphur sufficient to cancel a doubling of CO₂ in the atmosphere, a global cooling of about 3.7W/m². If sulphur were delivered at a much lower rate, say 10% of the computer model’s level, it would avoid serious reduction in monsoon rainfall but still provide global cooling sufficient to negate the next 12 years of CO₂ emissions at the present rate. 

Some say this would allow emissions reduction to slow. It seems the other way round to me – emissions reduction has never occurred, it has always increased. We need a solution now.

Colin Baglin, Malaga, Spain

Temperatures still rising

Andy Fitton writes that I am scathing in my criticism of climate change sceptics (Letters, PE August). I will continue to be scathing when they present arguments that a high-school student could refute. Martin Beaney’s reference to the last time atmospheric CO₂ was at 20 times present levels was in error by about 500 million years (Letters, PE June). And Fitton said the Arctic ice cap “is denser than the sea on which it floats”. When letters include statements such as these, I expect every engineer to be scathing in their criticism.

Fitton raised a number of points that I would like to address. Firstly, it is highly likely that the climate has warmed by 0.8K+/-0.3K since 1850 (HadCRUT4 Global Surface Temperature Dataset). A number of reconstructions, using different temperature proxies, all suggest that the present warming is unprecedented for at least 1,000 years. Secondly, it is undeniable that the Arctic sea ice extent has reduced significantly since satellite monitoring started in 1978. Contrary to Fitton’s “other science,” the melting sea ice makes little or no difference to sea levels (the ice displaces its own mass of sea water). The present rise in sea level is the result of thermal expansion of the oceans as they absorb heat from the atmosphere. Dramatic sea level rise will occur when continental, glacial ice starts to enter the oceans in serious quantities.

Thirdly, the increase in the Antarctic sea ice extent is a conundrum that climate scientists are trying to resolve. It is counter-intuitive that the ice sheet can expand when the local air and sea temperatures are increasing but it is no indication that global warming is not happening. 

And finally, the global surface temperature has not stopped rising. Each of the last three decades has been warmer than its predecessor, hardly an indication of stable temperatures.

Robin Trow, Snodland, Kent 

Sink or swim?

 

Andy Fitton makes an interesting assertion that the Arctic ice cap is “denser than the sea on which it floats” (Letters, PE August). Perhaps he could share with us the mechanism by which it floats.

Roger Lewis, Eye, Suffolk 

Let's stay united

 

I was surprised by the unbalanced report of the forthcoming referendum on separating Scotland from the UK (“Still polarised as polling approaches,” PE August).

 When PE went to press the polls were not “finely balanced” as the report states. The average of the last month gives 38% in favour and 52% opposed to a change in Scotland’s position in the UK, with 10% undecided. Experience of past referendums shows that the “undecided” mostly either don’t vote or vote to oppose change, widening the gap in favour of the status quo still further.

However the opening page of your report featuring the nationalist leaders smiling and holding up their manifesto, and the page of quotations and graphics from Scottish government publications, would leave the casual reader to believe that the referendum has already been decided in the separatists’ favour.

It is tendentious to quote the nationalists’ favourite figure of
24 billion barrels of extractable oil and gas remaining on the UK continental shelf as if it were a proven fact. The reduction in output from the peak year, 1999 – 244 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoes) – has averaged 7.5% per annum, to 72 mtoes in 2013. Taken to exhaustion at this rate of decline would yield 6.4 billion barrels remaining, not 12-24 billion as quoted elsewhere in the article.

 In the quotes of opinion, the article is similarly selective. Jim McColl of Clyde Blowers, a private equity company with investments in and outside Scotland, favours separation. McColl gets pretty much equal billing with Keith Cochrane, CEO of Weir Group, a company with 14,000 employees which actually manufactures things in Scotland. Cochrane opposes separation.

Finally, to underline his views about the break-up of the UK, my country and the home of the IMechE as it happens, Ben Hargreaves signs off the article with a quote which the separatists could hardly improve on: “independence is inevitable – it’s just a matter of time”.

Professor S F Bush, Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

Science inspires: Encouraging women to study Stem is 'a good thing'

Equality for men

 

It was interesting to see that most people thought the institution should be embarrassed about the small percentage of women engineers (Survey, PE July). I do not believe the IMechE has any need to beat itself up over this. 

I firmly believe in equal opportunities, and encouraging women to take an interest in Stem is a good thing. However, a great deal has been done to encourage women into male-dominated professions. In contrast, little has been done to encourage men into those professions where they are in the minority. Take, for example, the issue of the scarcity of male primary school teachers (12%). If you examine the teaching unions’ websites you will fail to find any concern over the matter.  

It would be nice if the female-dominated professions did as much to encourage men as the likes of the IMechE and other institutions have done to encourage women. 

In both cases, however, the outcome will be decided by personal preferences.

Rick Bradford, Wotton-under-Edge, Gloucestershire

Take action at local level

 

I wish IMechE president Group Captain Mark Hunt the very best of luck in his endeavour to bring the various professional engineering institutions together into a more understandable collegiate structure. 

Remember Finniston? He tried a similar venture in 1980 and failed. This failure caused my colleagues and myself to set up a working party for engineers of all disciplines in Barrow. We set out to organise lectures of as wide a range of subjects as possible and invited engineers and members of the public. Last year our average attendance was 130 and the maximum 300.

A public voice is urgently needed to attract young people into engineering and to show that the intellectual level, and challenge, is higher than in many other professions, even if the financial rewards leave a lot to be desired. Apprenticeships and degrees are equally important. Practical, hands-on work, as well as theoretical studies, are equally important. 

I hope, sincerely, that our new president is successful, if only to promote engineering to our young members of the public in a manner that they can all appreciate and understand, and therefore wish to join.

J H Aubrey, Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria

 

Golden oldies 

You noted that the average age of an IMechE member is 57, but this could be misleading (Editor’s Comment, PE August). Old engineers never die, they just fade away. Our ages (I’m 71 and proud to call myself an engineer) will distort the true picture in industry. It would be interesting to see what the average age of engineers in or between employment is? 

Stefan Shillington, Kenilworth

Seek the knowledge

The engineering skills-shortage debate has been raised again as the result of a report published by Cranfield University and the Higher Education Academy. 

Some 46 bodies, ranging from academia and trade groups to manufacturing, materials and design, came to the conclusion that, “a revolutionary improvement in postgraduate education” is required. This comes as no surprise. The last two years have seen rising student dissatisfaction lead to a 13.5% fall in the number of full-time postgraduates.

It’s frustrating to see that, despite leading in innovation, the UK’s universities are slowly slipping down international rankings, facing “a collapse in their global position within a generation”.

The Cranfield report calls for three things: an industry roadmap, a cross-sector taxonomy of postgraduate education, and an overhaul of teaching methods to bridge the gap between student and industry needs.

Although this goes some way to combating the problem, more is needed. Having faced these challenges, Accutronics prescribes the use of an innovation strategy. Here, employers must innovate in both product and process development. One way of achieving this is by using government-funded Knowledge Transfer Partnerships.

We face a second wave of skills shortages if we fail to address the current situation. A serious remodelling of industry and academic collaboration is required if we are to lay the foundation for sustainable growth.

Rob Phillips, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire 

Go loco: As well as giants like these, Didcot museum has models made by a former IMechE president

Sir Hugh remembered

I enjoyed reading your article on Didcot railway museum (Back Page, PE August). Readers might also be interested to view a model of an early GWR steam loco, which is housed in the museum. 

It was built by Sir Hugh Ford, a past president of the IMechE, himself a GWR apprentice, and is exact in every detail, including the correct number of rivets. At the museum there is also a model GWR carriage, built by Sir Hugh.  

Tony Roche, IMechE Past President, Odell, Bedford

Professional fitters

Occasionally, when browsing builders merchants, I pick up copies of trade magazines. Recently, I collected a copy of Professional Heating and Plumbing Installer – July/August edition.  

I thought you might be interested, and perhaps perturbed, to know that it had an article written by the chief executive of Gas Safe Register. The article, presumably aimed at trade professionals, uses the term ‘engineer’ a dozen times.

Articles such as this clearly demonstrate that those chartered individuals who seek better status are fighting a lost cause.

Trevor Godolphin, Droitwich

Unequal contest

It’s kind of you to say that the campaign challenging the HS2 high-speed rail project is “well-organised and well-funded” (Survey, PE August). The good organisation is doubtless due to the professional engineers involved, who do a lot more than spot the holes in the techno-waffle put out by the government.  

As for the funding, I’d say “get real”. One side has weighty arguments and thread-bare pockets, the other has the opposite. The pro-HS2 lobby has a whole PR department funded by the taxpayer and corporate interests – as befits a project with dozens of employees earning multiples of the PM’s salary.

Richard Lloyd, Balsall Common, Coventry

Inky fingers

The letter from Phil Shepherd, bemoaning the fact that the IMechE president signed 50 years’ membership certificates with a biro, caught my eye (PE July). 

One of my favourite memories of my presidential year was signing the certificates of newly qualified members. First because it reminds me of the great growth in our membership, and the potential of new members contribution to our institution in the future, and also because it gave me the opportunity to sign the certificates with my fountain pen. 

The blotting paper I have kept as a valued souvenir! 

Professor Roderick A Smith, IMechE Past President, London

Subsidies stink

It is a load of smoke and mirrors to cover up the fact that the energy policies emanating from the Climate Change Act are a disaster and the customer must pay (View from Westminster, PE August).   

Where is the talk of the ability to meet demand, something that I have always felt is rather important? Of course the government contingency is to have lots of diesel generators available. These will need a massive subsidy to construct and unbelievable payments to run. 

Dare I suggest that they are not green.  

Stand back and think. It is all utter madness. Customers are being made to support a subsidy-driven industry based on false assumptions and ideals with no benefits. Security is reduced, and if the Chinese continue building coal stations there will be no benefit.

Colin Warburton, Yarm, Stockton-on-Tees

Email your views to pe@caspianmedia.com or write to The Editor, PE, Unit G4, Harbour Yard, Chelsea Harbour, London SW10 0XD. Please include your full name and address.