The record of engineers in the business of soothsaying isn’t great. Every year, we ask our readers to cast the runes and tell us what is going to happen over the coming 12 months. And every year… well, let’s just say that the record is patchy.
You’ll have to go to our website to find out exactly how last year’s forecasters did – they were by no means as bad as some of their predecessors.
The year to come this time around promises much of interest. There’s got to be an election in the UK, for instance; maybe there will be a recovery from the downturn; there are projects and schemes and policy issues up for grabs. Here’s what our readers think, with 520 of them willing to put their necks on the block.
We gave them a selection of more or less sensible statements about things that may or may not occur in 2010. They agreed; they disagreed; they sometimes didn’t know and sometimes didn’t care. At this point, no one’s right or wrong. But in a year’s time…
No 1. David Cameron will be Prime Minister at the end of this year.
Agree: 78%. Disagree: 12%. Don’t know: 10%.
The gist of the answers is that people think it’s time for a change and Cameron is the viable alternative. It was hard, in analysing answers, to detect any great enthusiasm for him and several noted that they didn’t know what he stood for.
That, though, is probably an advantage: the problem Gordon Brown faces as PM is that people do seem to know what he stands for and they want something else. Or, in some cases, they recognise that the country as a whole does, even if they don’t. A small minority thought Brown would hang on or there would be a hung parliament. A couple felt Cameron wouldn’t last long if elected.
No 2. The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (the one that used to be the DTI) will have a different name before the end of the year.
Agree: 61%. Disagree: 19%. Don’t know: 20%.
There were, of course, comments about the department head, Lord Mandelson, who polarises opinion as few other politicians can. But there is a strong majority that he won’t be in government by the end of the year and that his present ministry will have a new title. It is, said several respondents, one of the easier things a new government can do – change a few departmental titles around to give an impression of action. Whoever said engineers weren’t cynical?
No 3. Manufacturing businesses will grow at a faster rate in 2010 than the rest of the UK economy.
Agree: 35%. Disagree: 52%. Don’t know: 13%.
A question we’ve asked before, and we usually get a depressed answer. It’s closer this time than it has been in the past because there does seem to be a bit of confidence that the worst of recession is over and the UK is a better place to manufacture things than it has been for a while.
No 4. Proposals to levy tolls for “non-green” vehicles on motorways and significant trunk roads will be announced in 2010.
Agree: 30%. Disagree: 60%. Don’t know: 10%.
This ticks several boxes: it raises revenues; it can be presented as a green measure if hybrid vehicles are exempted; and it’s a tax on consumption rather than mere ownership. Engineers don’t like it, though, and many of those who added comments said it was a certain vote loser. City congestion charges seemed more likely to some.
No 5. The government will abolish student loans and university fees for engineering and technology courses and double the fees for some other courses, including media studies.
Agree: 5%. Disagree: 90%. Don’t know: 5%.
This is one of those options that no one much thinks will happen but which many engineers would rather like – except there was a small minority who thought it was a bad idea because wastrel students would gravitate towards subsidised engineering courses to the profession’s detriment. We think it won’t happen either… but, if any of the parties is reading this, it could be a vote winner. Among engineers, at any rate.
No 6. The third runway for Heathrow Airport will be cancelled.
Agree: 27%. Disagree: 65%. Don’t know: 7%.
Last year we asked whether it would be given the go-ahead. The evidence here is of agonising by some readers. Quite a lot wrote in to the effect that they didn’t much like the idea of the expanded Heathrow but that to cancel it would send out a harmful economic message.
No 7. A spate of hackers and viruses will put a temporary halt to internet-based trading and shopping worldwide while new defences are put in place.
Agree: 16%. Disagree: 73%. Don’t know: 11%.
Strange response here. The headline is that our readers don’t think this will happen this year, but there are quite a few people saying that problems will increase and that it could happen in the middle distance. Equally, several people noted that the internet economy was now so huge it was inconceivable that it could grind to a halt for any length of time.
No 8. Plans to build a second Channel tunnel will be put forward.
Agree: 4%. Disagree: 92%. Don’t know: 4%.
We get the message. There’s lots of joshing about the trials and travails of the current Eurotunnel this winter so why build a second when we managed without the original one? But just remember: when it happens later this year, you read about it here first.
No 9. Construction work will begin in 2010 on the first of the next generation of UK nuclear power stations.
Agree: 42%. Disagree: 53%. Don’t know: 6%.
One of our perennial questions and readers are getting a bit wise to it, having been over-optimistic in the past. What they’re also getting is a bit worried – about the security of power supplies and whether this apparently available solution will actually ever come about. The voices of those who would be in a position to know among our readership seem mostly to think this year will see plans advance, but no construction yet. As you’d expect, PE will keep you posted across the year.
No 10. Richard Branson will be the first customer for his Virgin Galactic space tourism venture this year.
Agree: 48%. Disagree: 42%. Don’t know: 9%.
No overall majority here, but more people think he will than he won’t. What comes across strongly from several is that Branson is held in awe as someone who gets things done. Cue for a susurrus of quiet harrumphing about how we could do with a few more like him…
No 11. The government, mayor of London and Royal Family will announce plans for a modest-scale windfarm in one of London’s royal parks.
Agree: 14%. Disagree: 80%. Don’t know: 6%.
Engineers are sometimes rather literal people, of course, and several readers wrote to say that a windfarm in London wouldn’t be exactly practical because of the lack of wind, the tall buildings etc etc. That’s to miss the point: the reason it could happen would be to demonstrate that anyone could live happily next to a windpark. But readers are correct, of course: it probably won’t happen. (Although the remark on Q8 applies here too.)
No 12. The England football team will win the World Cup.
Agree: 16%. Disagree: 76%. Don’t know: 8%.
The ultimate optimistic/pessimistic question? Not if you’re Welsh, Scottish or Irish, in which case, several readers assured us, you really don’t want England to win. For others, amusement or the stuff of their wildest dreams. For a few, it provoked dread: a summer of football, memories of ’66, Alan Hansen making Gordon Brown look cheerful. All too much for some people. They think it’s all over. Never mind, it soon will be.