But progress is not being made fast enough to align with international greenhouse-gas reduction targets.
In the 2019 edition of its World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the world’s CO2 emissions could continue to rise for decades unless policymakers step up their climate ambition – and fast.
Under the report’s Current Policies Scenario, which aims to trace the outcome of existing government climate commitments, demand for oil and gas increases during the period to 2040. The use of coal levels off, with new solar and wind installations meeting the majority of inevitable increases in energy demand. It’s a less-than-rosy projection, although the falling cost of renewables offers cause for hope.
Offshore wind, in particular, continues to perform when it comes to price. Last September, it was announced that the latest wave of windfarms for the UK North Sea would require guaranteed electricity prices of between £39.65 and £41.61/MWh to be built. Just six or so years ago, the UK government was issuing contracts worth £150/MWh. The price fell to £110/MWh in 2015 and then further to £57.50/MWh in 2017.
The UK’s September offshore wind auction marked a significant milestone: for the first time, the projects would be developed without subsidies. Analysis by the energy policy website Carbon Brief found that the auction prices were so low that the windfarms would generate power more cheaply than existing gas-fired power stations as early as 2023. Even last year, estimates stated that renewables wouldn’t hit this tipping point until 2030.
Best in Europe
“This auction also confirms the UK’s position as the leader in offshore wind in Europe,” said Giles Dickson, CEO of trade association WindEurope. “They have the largest auction plans: 2GW a year to 2030.”
While the UK might have pioneered offshore wind technology – and has the most installed capacity – other countries are catching up. By 2025, the IEA predicts that China will have the world’s largest offshore wind fleet. According to the agency, the technology is appealing to policymakers because windfarms can easily power major population centres in the country’s east and south.
However, most of the sector’s major breakthroughs have taken place in nations that border the North Sea. In 2017, Germany became the first country in the world to ink an offshore wind contract in the absence of government support. The Netherlands followed suit, with Swedish developer Vattenfall winning a tender to build up to 750MW of subsidy-free offshore wind in Dutch waters in 2018.
The North Sea is a logical proving ground for turbine technologies. With relatively shallow water depths, it’s easy to install fixed turbine foundations – and workers don’t have to endure the brutal conditions of the open ocean.
But, if policymakers are serious about wind energy, it’s crucial that turbines are able to be placed in deeper waters, where they can take advantage of much stronger gales. The industry is racing to commercialise floating turbine designs, which see towers mounted on foundations that are tethered to, instead of hammered into, the seabed. Two pilot projects exist today: Hywind Scotland, a five-turbine installation off the coast of Peterhead, and Portugal’s three-unit WindFloat Atlantic.
Trade barriers
The IEA believes that floating turbines could unlock enough potential to meet the world’s total electricity demand 11 times over in 2040. Standard offshore wind alone could meet several times electricity demand in a number of countries, including the US and Japan. For any of this projected growth to materialise, efficient international supply chains must be developed.
Yet, according to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), a number of countries have imposed tariffs and other trade barriers on components needed to build wind turbines, as well as moving to restrict global investment in renewable energy. GWEC CEO Ben Backwell said that news of fresh trade hurdles breaks “every week” – to the ultimate detriment of our climate goals.
“It is vitally important for countries and companies to be working together to scale up the deployment of technologies like wind energy that we need to decarbonise,” he emphasised. “Whether we are in Beijing or Brussels, we all face a common problem and need to cooperate to replace fossil fuels with renewables as fast as possible.”
Wind is a virtually boundless resource and engineers have designed all the technologies we need to harness it. Now investors and policymakers must act to ensure potential is truly converted into power.
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Content published by Professional Engineering does not necessarily represent the views of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.