Readers letters

Philosophy for engineers

PE

We don’t have time to develop a new unproven technology – we are already contemplating blackouts



Renewable energy proponents should follow Richard Feynman’s example, see Challenger Enquiry, Appendix F, “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled”. Megawatt reality is published on a rolling 3 month half-hourly archive, Electricity Data Summary Balancing Mechanism Report www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm, or, for Denmark, try www.emd.dk/el.Their archive has a chart for every day back to 2008.

 
During the anticyclone that began a few days ago, you will find widely spaced isobars from the Atlantic into Russia, North Cape to the Sahara - see the weather chart in your daily paper. All within it are enjoying the same light wind conditions, and will continue to do so over the next few days.  It’s almost identical to the anticyclone in the first half of February 2013.
 
At yesterday’s low point, our UK wind turbines were producing one third of one MW for every 100MW of installed capacity. What generation would Greens build to ensure reliable electricity for homes and workplaces in such conditions? And how would we finance it, if it can’t earn whenever the wind does blow?
 
Reliables, coal, nuclear, gas, PS-hydro, whose fuel supplies we can ensure, are mutually supportive – build an extra one, and supply reliability gets better. Straight hydro is included, except where its primary purpose of managing water levels gets in the way.  

An extra WT doesn’t help much in an anticyclone though. Waves are generated by wind, NBG, solar at night is NBG. And maybe the Severn tides are at the neap part of their fortnightly cycle – 4metres range, not the 14 metre spring tide level. It might help – might.
 
Let’s have no Philosopher’s Stone suggestions, we don’t have time to develop a new unproven technology – we are already contemplating blackouts, perhaps next winter.
 
Philosophers make the point that we tend to look for evidence that accords with our prejudices. That’s a dangerous route for engineers to follow - they should look for reasons why their proposals won’t work, and how they can negate them.
 
Bill Hyde, Offham, Kent

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