Engineering news
London's population is increasing at a rate of 100,000 a year and will reach 8.6 million next year, a record level, placing increasing strain on the capital's infrastructure.
The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, has launched a plan for the city's infrastructure in the years to 2050 that engineering consultancy Arup estimates could involve investment of £1.3 trillion. The population of London is forecast to be more than 11 million by that date.
Demand for public transport is forecast to increase by 50%, with increased demand for London Underground services of 60% and rail services of 80%. Demand for energy supplies is set to increase by 20% during a period where demand on electricity supplies is forecast to more than double. Thames Water, meanwhile, projects that demand for water will exceed supply by 10% in London by 2025, rising to 21% by 2040.
Arup director Alex Jan told PE: “The question is how you maintain quality of life for all London's citizens even as the population increases. If you don't provide the basic infrastructure there are quality of life issues that could be injurious to the city and its attractiveness.”
He added: “Major increases to population without infrastructure investment could ultimately damage London's economy.”
Jan added that if there was adequate investment in infrastructure then London Underground could cope with increased passenger numbers. This would partly be through signalling and capacity increases on the Tube but also through the development of other rail services such as Crossrail. Jan said that it was important that a piecemeal or ad hoc approach to infrastructure was avoided and that a coherent overall plan was put in place. “If we knew when Crossrail 2 was going to start, the whole machinery of Crossrail 1 could be harnessed effectively to tip over into Crossrail 2 – rather than the stop-start stuff, which means you lose supply chain capability. It's more expensive and less efficient.” There was the chance for democratic processes to have greater “momentum” to develop infrastructure projects, he said.
Jan believes that an “industrial scale” development of infrastructure not seen since Victorian times is necessary. This includes the development of extra aviation capacity for London. The Mayor of London's office said: “With Heathrow already operating at 98.5% of its capacity, a new four runway hub airport in the Thames estuary must be provided to meet London's wider social and economic needs.” Jan said it was not Arup's place to comment on where the extra airport capacity should be provided but that it was “unquestionable” that more capacity was needed.
Government in London should have greater powers and taxation-raising abilities to pay for infrastructure projects and there should be a greater level of public-private infrastructure projects in the future, Arup said.
“London mustn't become an industrial sweatshop, but the response of infrastructure provision needs to be on an industrial scale in order to meet those expectations for 11 million people,” Jan said.