Energy, Environment and Sustainability Group

How Sustainable is Decarbonisation? - David MacKay Memorial Lecture

Roger Middleton, Energy, Environment and Sustainability Group

Last year’s David MacKay Memorial Lecture was given by Prof Ian Arbon, on Monday 13 December on the subject of “How Sustainable is Decarbonisation?”.

Chief Executive of IMechE, Alice Bunn started the session with some brief but interesting personal accounts of David MacKay’s time at Darwin College Cambridge to set the scene.

Ian began the talk by introducing himself and his 50 years experience in industry in the UK, Netherlands, Germany and USA, culminating in Board positions with Howden Compressors. He recalled presenting a lecture in the USA in 2007 on Doing the Right Thing Right, Energy and Climate Change, which is what engineers usually do, but engineers rarely have full control over the whole problem. The view from President G W Bush in 2002 was that technology would provide the answer so we shouldn’t worry about climate change, and essentially, that view still prevails. However, it is nothing like the whole story, as Ian related a Network Rail official saying that they could reduce their emissions to zero but it would only represent 3% of their impact; this is probably similar to the whole of the UK. But unless we can define and measure any problem we cannot manage it so, unlike politicians, we need some definitions to be technically literate!

Ian used two definitions of Sustainability, both stressing the long term continuance of any sustainable activity and particularly applied them to materials, energy and actions or behaviours. The UK has made a little progress on the first two but almost nothing on the last and this is just one example of a lack of big picture awareness. Thermal power stations using any fuel are horribly inefficient unless we can use the surplus heat which is usually wasted. The electrical output is often less than a third of the total energy generated; the rest goes into the environment as heat. This shows that “carbon” is not the problem and nor is “carbon dioxide”; CO2. Even the Greenhouse Effect is not the problem. If that didn’t work the earth would be uninhabitable; it would be too cold. But the Greenhouse Effect, caused mainly by water vapour, CO2, methane and ozone has been put out of balance by burning fossil fuels from the start of the industrial revolution. Ian also outlined the different effects and durations of the components and pointed out that Greta Thunberg’s transatlantic yacht was very “low emissions”, but not “low carbon”. Accurate definitions are vital!

Ian reviewed the results of COP26 and concluded that the outcomes would not get us close to limiting temperature rise to 1.50C but Governments want to be re-elected so, although their technical illiteracy is inexcusable, unpopular decisions are unlikely. The most impressive contribution was the Energy Institute’s Young Member’s film, “The Challenge of our Time” which covered technical solutions but also changing behaviours. The protesters and NGOs also contributed very little although the Insulate Britain group did at least have a workable part solution as the UK has almost the most energy inefficient housing in Europe. This provided a link to the Energy Hierarchy, a theme Ian has propounded for some years.

The concept is a pyramid in which the top layer is the essential objective and the bottom is “business as usual”. The top layer is simply to reduce demand for energy. This plays into the theme of the “negawatt”; the watt you don’t use. The next layer down is to use energy more efficiently and avoid waste. Next down the pyramid is to use sustainable renewable energy, for example avoiding fossil fuels, and next is to focus on low greenhouse gas emitting resources.  The base layer is conventional energy use – business as usual.

Ian stressed that technology cannot reach into the top tier, the demand side and yet, even the Climate Change Committee now acknowledge that saving energy is essential, so we need behaviour change as well. This has until recently been dismissed as politically difficult but the COVID-19 crisis has shown that behaviour changes are possible and essential.  

Ian answered about fifteen widely varying questions raised during the presentation and Rupert closed the event by thanking Alice Bunn for her contribution and Ian for the presentation.

The presentation can be found via the IMechE website: select Events, then Webinar Hub and scroll down to the EESG tile. This gives access to all EESG webinars and How Sustainable is Decarbonisation? is about four from the top.

View previous Energy, Environment and Sustainability Webinars

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