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Flooding, heatwaves, high winds and landslips are increasingly disrupting services while raising new safety concerns for operators. According to Network Rail, weather-related incidents now account for more than 3 million delay minutes annually, costing the industry more than £120m each year in compensation payments alone. The nature of those disruptions is also changing. Network Rail’s latest Adaptation Report shows that between 2006 and 2024, cold- and snow-related incidents have given way to flooding, extreme heat and subsidence as the dominant causes of delay.
That trend sits uneasily alongside government ambitions for rail freight. Moving goods by rail can reportedly reduce carbon emissions by up to 76% per tonne compared with road haulage, and a single freight train can replace around 129 heavy goods vehicles. Ministers are pushing to expand rail’s current 8-10% share of UK freight movement as part of broader environmental targets. But pursuing that growth means routing more traffic through ageing infrastructure never designed for today’s climate conditions.
Freight depots, sidings and multi-user operational sites are particularly exposed. Yet responses across the industry have remained fragmented and predominantly reactive – site-specific assessments prompted by severe incidents rather than any systematic forward planning.
That gap is now being addressed. The Freight Safe Programme (FSP), which brings together key stakeholders from across the sector, has developed and launched what it describes as the rail freight industry’s first coordinated, standardised Climate Change Risk Assessment Model. The tool is intended to provide freight operating companies (FOCs) with a consistent method for identifying, ranking, mitigating and tracking climate-related safety risks across multi-user sites.
Available to all FOCs via the Rail Safety and Standards Board website, the model draws on assessments of around 200 operator-owned sites. Users can select a specific site or hazard category and generate risk rankings from low to very high.
By combining climate science with safety risk management for the first time at scale, its developers say the tool bridges the gap between complex environmental data and day-to-day operational decision-making. It also supports the creation of climate change adaptation reports, giving estate and property managers a structured framework for planning against both current and projected risks.
The model underwent a 12-month pilot at DB Cargo UK’s Crewe International Electric Maintenance Depot, where it was used to assess site-specific vulnerabilities under a range of projected climate scenarios.
Among the risks identified were the impact of extreme heat stress on track infrastructure, increased wind speed and exposure along the tree line, and a heightened risk of ballast washaway and track instability caused by heavier rainfall. The assessment also highlighted that intense rainfall could overwhelm the depot roof and flood inspection pits, presenting a direct safety and welfare risk for maintenance staff.
“It’s important that, as a rail freight operating industry, we are aware of the hazards that climate change can cause to sites not just now, but in the years to come,” says Stacie Scullion, sustainability manager at DB Cargo UK. “[The model] allows us to plan, budget and address the impact of climate change on safety before issues arise, putting in place a clear plan for the future.”
The urgency is hard to ignore. Temperature extremes have become more frequent and more intense, according to analysis by the Met Office. The UK recorded its hottest summer in 2025, while 2026 has already produced its hottest May day, 34.8°C – two degrees higher than the previous record.
October 2023 to March 2024 was the wettest half-year on record, and the last three years have been the three highest for annual mean sea level rises. In its latest report, the government’s Committee on Climate Change called for accelerated action to prepare the UK’s national infrastructure for the physical consequences of a warming climate.
Against that backdrop, resilience planning is fast becoming an operational necessity rather than a long-term consideration. The FSP’s Climate Change Risk Assessment Model suggests the rail freight sector is beginning to respond accordingly.
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