Transport secretary Heidi Alexander unveiled major changes to the project yesterday (19 May), including an updated expected cost of £87.7bn to £102.7bn – up from original estimates of £32.7bn in 2012, or £49.2bn adjusted for inflation.
The government also announced that the trains will only run up to 200mph (320km/h) instead of the previously planned 225mph (360km/h). That reduction – which aligns HS2 with Japanese bullet trains – was pinned on a lack of test tracks in the UK, which an announcement said would add to “spiralling costs and build time”. The change could provide savings of up to £2.5bn and at least a year in delivery time, it added.
A new report by Sir Stephen Lovegrove, also published by the government yesterday, said the project previously focused on “the highest possible speeds, resulting in bespoke and highly engineered design”. However, “passengers just want reliable trains that turn up when they’re supposed to… not a vanity project with trains so fast that proper testing couldn’t be done until track and railway systems were complete,” Alexander told parliament.
The top speed reduction is a “sound idea”, said IMechE Railway Division chair Rebeka Sellick: “As a practical railway engineer, I know 200mph (320km/h) is around the European high speed standard, and standardisation brings immense benefits in terms of reducing costs and timescales and all-round risk reduction over the life of the railway, not just first cost.”
The project has been vulnerable to timing and cost risks because it was set up with “huge technical ambition to be disruptive and innovative”, she said, and it has been “subject to political stop/go and stakeholder changes”.
Alexander also revealed updated timescales for operation. The first services are expected to run from Old Oak Common – five miles (8km) from Euston, in west London – to Birmingham Curzon Street between May 2036 and October 2039. Services running the full distance from Euston to Handsacre Junction are expected between May 2040 and December 2043.
“Given where we are starting from, the reset looks like a robust piece of work,” Sellick said. “I am hopeful that it has positioned HS2 for success from here, with a focus on skilled professionals and streamlined governance, bringing clearer roles and reducing duplication from multiple layers of assurance.”
There are now three key things to focus on, she continued. “First, as Heidi Alexander said in her statement, the capacity and performance benefits to the whole network should be realised, implementing Northern Powerhouse Rail, and maximising the economic growth potential (including building new homes around the stations and depot); second, HS2 needs stability to get on with the job (without further stop/start/change); and third, we should celebrate success, recognising the milestones that have been delivered early, the innovation and community impacts achieved.”
The latest changes to the project follow ongoing efforts by HS2 Ltd CEO Mark Wild to correct earlier mistakes and accelerate delayed construction work, which he previously told Professional Engineering had become “discontinuous”. That work has resulted in six major construction milestones being reached earlier than planned in the last year, the government announcement said, as well as the elimination of 300 bureaucratic roles and increased scrutiny on contracts to ensure taxpayers get value for money.
A new assessment revealed it could cost almost as much to cancel the project as it would to complete it, Alexander said, as the government recommitted to the project between Birmingham and London. Planned legs to Manchester and Leeds were cancelled by previous governments.
“Taxpayers, passengers and communities along the route have been let down by years of mismanagement on HS2,” she said.
“I share their anger about the waste and mess, but I am proud that this government has worked with HS2’s new senior team to get this project off life support and on the road to recovery.
“We will get the job done but we will also take every opportunity to save time and money in the process, getting a grip on delivery, controlling costs and stripping out the complexity that’s plagued the project in the past.
“We can and must build big infrastructure projects in Britain. But we also need competent people in charge of them. This is the same team that delivered the Elizabeth line [Wild and HS2 chair Mike Brown]. We have done it before; we will do it again.”
Aims of the project include more trains on the West Coast Main Line corridor, a doubling of peak long-distance, fast rail capacity between the capital and the West Midlands, more reliable services and a 30-minute saving on journeys between London and Birmingham.
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Content published by Professional Engineering does not necessarily represent the views of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.