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A quarter of items currently supplied by retailers could be produced by consumers at home using domestic additive layer manufacturing equipment from 2020 and China will dominate the global automotive market, according to new research.
The predictions were made by business and technology think-tank Future World as part of a series of “beyond 2020” scenarios that could have far-reaching implications for many sectors and industries. In one hypothesis developed by the organisation, by 2020 25% of retail products would be manufactured by consumers at home using 3D printing machines, which are already on the market and rapidly falling in price. Such a move would cut out a large chunk of the products’s supply chain and obviate the need for complex logistics. Designers could sell their ideas directly over the internet for customers to make at home.
Future World founder Wolfgang Grulke told PE: “3D printing has massive consequences. It means products can be bought for probably 10-20% of the cost of buying them from a retailer or in a shopping mall.
“We think 3D printing is destined to become cheap and prolific. If you look at the value chain, from sourcing raw materials and manufacturing to the logistics and the retail industry, it is threatened. But potentially the designer of the product can connect directly with the customer. Designers could double their profits.”
Grulke acknowledged that manufacturing had “many different futures”, depending on the sector. “The automotive industry is fascinating,” he said. “Look at the rate car manufacturing is growing in China. It still has more than 50 manufacturers, which makes it like the US in the 1950s. In 10 years’ time, 40 of those will be gone, but the remaining 10 will dominate the world market.”
He said this trend raised questions over the viability of car manufacturing in the West. China was aided, he said, by the large number of engineering graduates it produced.
“With the economies of scale China is generating, and the technology it has, it will be making the number one high-quality, high-tech cars. The simple reason is that China produces more than 200,000 engineering graduates a year. Many graduates are in research, and research results in new ways of doing things. Those strategies are going to be owned by China, not Europe.”
Grulke said that organisations had to learn to change and adapt to survive in a fast-paced world. “The worst thing you can do is nothing. If everything around you is changing and you stay the same, you won’t be viable. Businesses need to keep their existing activities successful and profitable while looking at future opportunities.”