'Death of diesel' blamed as 7 in 11 carmakers forecast to miss emissions targets

The 'death' of diesel engines and a rapidly approaching deadline mean more than half of major carmakers will miss emissions targets, an expert has said.

Of 11 manufacturers, Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, Fiat Chrysler, Peugeot Citroen – including Opel/Vauxhall – and Hyundai-Kia will not meet EU 2021 emissions targets, with Daimler narrowly falling foul, according to an annual forecast from PA Consulting Group.

By 2021, the fleet average for all new cars must be 95g of CO₂ per kilometre or less, a reduction of 40% on the 2007 fleet average. Companies that miss the targets face paying billions of euros in fines.

A drop in the number of new diesel cars – generally more efficient than petrol but with high levels of dangerous particulates – is making the target more difficult to meet, said industry expert Chris Goodall from Carbon Commentary.

“Those ones who have seen the greatest reduction in diesel face the biggest problems,” he said to Professional Engineering. “There are lots of improvements that can take place to the petrol internal combustion engine, but not within the time before those targets apply.”

Manufacturers face penalties of €95 for each gram of CO₂ per kilometre, multiplied by the number of cars sold in 2020. PA said Volkswagen will probably face the biggest fine of €1.7bn, followed by Fiat Chrysler on €1.2bn.

However, Goodall said he thought no penalties will be imposed because it is “too politically difficult” given the importance of car manufacturing to key European governments.

Volvo, Toyota, Renault-Nissan and Jaguar Land Rover are expected to meet the targets. Volvo is forecast to be furthest ahead after announcing that all its cars will be electric or hybrid from 2019.

Nationally, PA said Norway had the lowest level of emissions and the highest use of electric vehicles, making up 29% of new car sales in 2016, ahead of an internal combustion engine ban in 2025. The group said the UK’s similar 2040 ban “will be a challenge” because of the automotive sector’s over-reliance on conventional engines, producing 2.5m every year – 15% of the European total.

“Carmakers across Europe need to make radical changes in order to meet the EU carbon dioxide emissions targets for 2021,” said Thomas Goettle, head of automotive at PA. “Many of them need to focus now on developing new models that will appeal to the consumer and help them meet their targets. There is nothing less than a revolution facing the car industry and those manufacturers who fail to keep up face potential fines in the billions.”