It is 14 years since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came into force, with 154 nations as signatories and the intention to stabilise emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at 1990 levels by the year 2000.
The Kyoto Protocol: A global agreement on greenhouse gas emissions
The Kyoto Protocol was introduced at Conference of Parties 3 (COP3) in December 1997 to regulate the generated part of the world’s CO2 emissions (ie not including deforestation and natural emissions) and came into force on 16 February 2005.
However, despite the fact that a total of 181 countries, plus the EU as a single entity, have ratified the agreement, only 36 developed countries (plus the EU) are required to reduce GHG emissions to specified levels. This does not include a number of nations which generate significant levels of GHG emission.
Commitment to the Kyoto Protocol
Most industrialised countries, with the exception of the USA, agreed to legally binding reductions in GHG emissions that would reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% relative to 1990 levels, between the years 2008 and 2012.
National limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union (EU) and some others, to 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.
As of June 2008, a total of 181 countries, plus the EU as a single entity, have ratified the agreement.
Global CO2 emissions since the Kyoto Protocol
In the 14 years since the UNFCCC entered into force, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO²) in the atmosphere as measured by NOAA ERSC has increased from a global annual mean of 358 parts per million (ppm) to 383ppm.
More significantly from 1970 to 2000, the concentration rose by about 1.5ppm each year, but since 2000 (the date targeted by the UNFCCC for stabilisation of emissions at 1990 levels) the annual rise has increased to an average 2.1ppm. In addition, concentrations of two other significant GHGs, methane and nitrous oxide, have increased by about 2% and 3.4% respectively over the same period. However, since 1999 methane concentrations have stabilised, but this is most likely related to several factors, including changes in emissions related to the former Soviet Union and the short lifetime of methane in the atmosphere.
In 2007, global CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel use and cement production increased by 3.1%, or about 830 million metric tons of CO2, relative to 2006. The emissions from China accounted for approximately 65% of this increase, with India, Russia and the USA contributing a further 30%. The first three nations are not obliged to reduce their emissions under the Protocol and the USA, along with Kazakhstan, is one of the two signatories who have not ratified the agreement. Thus about 95% of the increase in 2007 is attributed to nations that are not required to make emissions reductions.
Who are the top CO2 producers?
The top CO2 producing countries are:
- China: 25%
- USA: 21%
- The EU-15: 12%
- India: 8%
- Russia: 6%
Together these five countries produce 71% of global CO2 emissions. The EU is the only entity in this list of top five emitters to have a reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol. Indeed, in 1990, at the start of this UN process, the countries that ultimately adopted reduction targets under the Protocol had a share of 30% of global GHG emissions, whereas in 2005, as a result of increased emissions from nations without targets, this share had decreased to about only 20%.
The obvious questions are:
- With such a small proportion of global emissions generated by those countries obliged to reduce them, has the Protocol been effective?
- Have those nations with reduction targets been disadvantaged by the Protocol?
- Is there any value in having a new agreement that doesn’t include the other four top emitters?