What is adaptation?

In recent years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and wider scientific community have realised that it will be necessary to adapt the world to the climate change that is going to occur in the relatively near future – so called ‘adaptation’.

Much scientific effort is now being invested in developing computational tools to explore possible future climate scenarios based on past, current and anticipated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In response to these scenarios, it will be necessary to consider the physical, economic and social adaptations that need to be implemented across a wide range of sectors, as well as ecological factors, to ensure the continued functioning of the systems that underpin civilised society.

Is adaptation inevitable?

In recognition of the reality of GHG emissions growth, which is occurring despite the work of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), there is increasing concern among opinion formers and the general public that no matter how much politicians meet in the Conference of Parties (COPs), talk and set targets, the upward trend in emissions will continue into the future.

The pace of world economic development, population growth and globalisation means that GHG emissions and deforestation continue to increase regardless of the political focus, and actually show no significant signs of slowing down. If this is to be the case then, in the absence of significant success with emissions reduction-based policies, the world may have to adapt to whatever future changes happen in the climate.

Is this an acceptable approach and if so what is required to ensure adaptation occurs in an orderly and timely manner? What adaptation is achievable in a technical context? What can be done about ecological systems and international disparities in impact, technical capability to adapt and capacity to adapt?